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Venezuela struggles with blackout as government claims sabotage
by Staff Writers
Caracas (AFP) March 8, 2019

Where is the Venezuelan crisis heading?
Caracas (AFP) March 10, 2019 - As the crisis in Venezuela rages on, it remains uncertain whether President Nicolas Maduro will cling on or opposition leader Juan Guaido will secure a transition of power.

- Pressure until collapse -

Guaido, who enjoys strong popular support, returned to Venezuela this week after a trip across the Colombian border to help coordinate the entry of humanitarian aid -- a failed effort Maduro had blasted as a precursor to US military intervention.

The self-declared interim president -- recognized by over 50 countries, including the United States -- avoided arrest upon his return, despite the fact he had violated a travel ban.

Back on home soil, he vowed to ramp up protests and continue to make life difficult for Maduro -- namely by calling public sector strikes and asking the European Union to tighten sanctions on the socialist government.

This kind of pressure could push military leaders to embrace Guaido and "collapse the regime, paving the way for a transition with elections," Michael Shifter, of Washington-based think tank Inter-American Dialogue, told AFP.

"So far there are few signs that this is happening, but it's possible."

But first, sanctions implemented by US President Donald Trump -- including a fuel embargo -- would make life even harder for Venezuelans. That creates the potential to taint Guaido's image, said analyst Luis Vicente Leon, of Venezuela's Datanalisis.

In fact, some -- including political scientist Luis Salamanca -- believe Maduro is betting on a strategy of "attrition" from Guaido.

- Political-military negotiation -

Maduro's approval rating has dwindled to just 14 percent, according to Datanalisis -- but the loyalty of the military stands strong.

In a bid to rob Maduro of one remaining saving grace, Guaido has offered military members amnesty if they defect -- unless they are accused of crimes against humanity.

Guaido says around 700 military members and police officials have broken from Maduro in recent weeks, although no high-ranking personnel.

Getting commanding officials on side would require "specific guarantees" for those implicated in corruption and human rights violations -- not to mention with economic interests.

"A transition like this would take longer, but it would increase the likelihood of it not being violent," according to Shifter.

Leon believes soldiers fear being decimated by a new government or failing in a rebellion against Maduro, so any amnesty must be "negotiated face to face."

That could lead to a solution such as a set-up in which "the military retains control of its forces as a guarantee of self-protection," he suggested.

An International Contact Group on Venezuela -- made up of EU and Latin American countries -- has pushed for government-opposition talks. So far, however, that has not moved forward.

- Coup or invasion -

A third scenario could see the military break from Maduro and organize elections -- or overthrow him in a traditional coup, according to Shifter.

"The scenario of military intervention, led by the United States, seems less and less likely -- but it can't be ruled out, depending on how the situation develops," he said.

Guaido asked the Lima Group -- the primarily Latin American bloc that recognizes his leadership -- to consider all options, but it declined to intervene via force.

However, for analyst Diego Moya-Ocampos of IHS Markits, intervention is still on the table for two reasons.

The first is the "magnitude and scale" of humanitarian crisis -- and second is the possibility that Maduro "could attack Guaido or (opposition-controlled) parliament."

But Leon warned intervention could unleash the same type of chaotic violence from Maduro-loyal squads seen during the failed bid to bring in aid.

Venezuela's government struggled to cope Friday with a massive electricity blackout that paralyzed much of the country as President Nicolas Maduro blamed the chaos on US sabotage.

Even by the standards of crisis-weary Venezuelans, the blackout -- which began late Thursday -- was one of the longest and most widespread in memory, heightening tensions in Maduro's power struggle with his US-backed rival, opposition leader Juan Guaido.

Maduro made the decision to shut down offices and schools "in order to facilitate efforts for the recovery of electricity service in the country," Vice President Delcy Rodriguez tweeted.

Power supply was gradually being restored to large areas of Caracas on Friday afternoon, as the country slowly began to emerge from the 24-hour blackout.

Electricity supply was also being resumed in areas of Miranda state and Vargas, which contains the country's international airport and main port.

Other areas like the western states of Zulia, Tachira and Barinas -- where lengthy outages are common -- were still without power.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, patrolling the west of the capital Caracas in an open-topped military jeep, said "everything is calm throughout national territory" as electricity workers tried to restore the electricity.

-'Total madness'-

The outage had left most of the country in chaos, crippling day-to-day functioning of hospitals and other public services, according to local press reports.

Witnesses described scenes of chaos at several hospitals as people tried to move sick relatives in the dark to clinics with better emergency power facilities.

Marielsi Aray, a patient at the University Hospital in Caracas, died after her respirator stopped working.

"The doctors tried to help her by pumping manually, they did everything they could, but with no electricity, what where they to do?" asked Jose Lugo, her distraught uncle.

Generators at the JM de Rios children's hospital in downtown Caracas failed to kick-in when the blackout hit, said Gilbert Altuvez, whose eight-year old boy is among the patients.

"The night was terrible. Without light. Total madness," he said.

Emilse Arellano said urgent dialysis for her child had to be cancelled Friday, after a night where staff worked in the light of cellphones.

"The children were very scared."

The putrid odor of rotting flesh hung around the entrance to Caracas' main Bello Monte morgue on Friday where refrigerators had stopped working and worried relatives gathered outside, waiting to be allowed to bury their dead.

Guaido, speaking to supporters at an gathering marking International Women's Day, confirmed that power "is beginning to come back in some sectors."

"It can't be normal that 50 percent of hospitals in the country don't have an electric plant," he said.

- 'Electrical war' -

The blackout in the capital was total and hit at 4:50 pm (2050 GMT), just before nightfall on Thursday.

Traffic lights went out and the subway system ground to a halt, triggering gridlock in the streets and huge streams of angry people trekking long distances to get home from work.

Thousands of homes in Caracas -- a crime-ridden city of two million people -- were without water supplies.

Telephone services and access to the internet were also knocked out.

The capital's Simon Bolivar international airport was hit, as were others across the country.

Following Maduro's decision to close the borders to keep out humanitarian aid for his people, the country was completely isolated Friday.

"The electrical war announced and directed by US imperialism against our people will be defeated," Maduro tweeted.

"Nothing and no one can defeat the people of Bolivar and Chavez," Maduro said, referring to the liberation hero Simon Bolivar and Maduro's predecessor and former boss, the late socialist icon Hugo Chavez.

Guaido, meanwhile reiterated his call for mass protests on Saturday.

"All Venezuela, now with more force than ever, returns to the streets of the whole country, we return to the streets and we won't go out until we reach the goal," he said.

- 'Tired, exhausted' -

Venezuelans are wearily accustomed to blackouts. They have been common in the west of the oil-rich country for years, but have eventually spread to Caracas and other areas.

Critics blame the government for failing to invest in maintaining the electrical grid, although the government often blames external factors when the lights go out.

The state power company Corpoelec said there has been sabotage at the Guri hydroelectric plant in Bolivar state, one of the largest in Latin America. It gave no details.

Maduro is struggling in the confrontation with Guaido, who has declared himself interim president and is now backed by some 50 countries led by the United States.

Guaido says Maduro's rule is illegitimate, arguing that his re-election win last year was fraudulent. He wants Maduro to resign from the Miraflores Palace and make way for new elections.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Maduro is wrong to blame the US or any other country for Venezuela's woes.

"Power shortages and starvation are the result of the Maduro regime's incompetence," he tweeted.


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