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Tanker attacks require 'international' response: Pentagon
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 14, 2019

The attacks being blamed on Iran in the Gulf of Oman pose a global and not just an American problem, the acting Pentagon chief said Friday, as he called for an "international consensus" in solving it.

"We have an international situation there in the Middle East, it's not a US situation," Patrick Shanahan told reporters, referring to the attacks Thursday on two oil tankers.

"The focus for myself and Ambassador (John) Bolton and Secretary (Mike) Pompeo is to build international consensus to this international problem," he said, referring respectively to the national security advisor and the secretary of state.

Shanahan said that is why the American military released a video which, it claimed, showed a patrol boat of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, a powerful branch of the Iranian military, pulling alongside one of the tankers to remove an unexploded limpet mine from its hull.

The Pentagon chief left open the possibility of further reinforcing the American military presence in the region, under the US Central Command, or CENTCOM.

"We're making sure that General (Kenneth) McKenzie and the Central Command have the resources and the support that they need," he said.

Shanahan emphasized that "15 percent of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz," the relatively narrow passage between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

"So we obviously need to make contingency plans should the situation deteriorate," he went on. "But we also need to broaden our support for this international situation."

As tensions grew, the Pentagon last month deployed a warship to the region carrying vehicles, some of them amphibious, and a Patriot missile battery. Earlier it had moved an aircraft carrier to the area in response to what it said were "imminent" threats from Iran.

And late last month, the US announced the deployment of 1,500 additional troops to the Middle East, invoking "persistent threats" to American forces emanating from what the Pentagon said was the "highest level" of the Iranian leadership.

The US presence was further reinforced with reconnaissance aircraft and a squadron of 12 fighter jets.

Iran attacks leave Trump and aides divided, with no clear strategy
Washington (AFP) June 14, 2019 - To retaliate or show restraint? Toughen sanctions or negotiate? The US administration, divided between hard-line hawks and a Donald Trump who fears plunging the country into another "endless" war, is struggling to define its strategy against Iran -- as demonstrated by its uncertain response to recent developments in the Gulf of Oman.

Here is what we know about the US response and administration thinking.

- How has the US reacted to the attacks? -

It took only hours for Washington to directly accuse Tehran of being "responsible" for the attacks Thursday against two oil tankers.

The incident had Iran "written all over it," Trump said Friday, rejecting Tehran's denial of any such role. The president pointed to a video that purports to show a patrol boat of Iran's Revolutionary Guards pulling alongside one of the tankers to remove an unexploded limpet mine from the ship's hull.

But the US condemnations were not followed by threats of any immediate retaliation. That represented a degree of restraint by an administration that has been steadily tightening economic and diplomatic sanctions against Iran, and which last month stepped up its "maximum pressure" campaign with new deployments of ships, bombers and troops to the region.

- War of words, or just plain war? -

"The situation between the US and Iran is becoming increasingly dangerous," tweeted Colin Kahl, a former Obama administration national security advisor now at Stanford University in California.

Both sides could "easily... slide into a war they claim they want to avoid," he said.

Between the continuing war of words and the recent escalation, numerous observers and US allies fear an incident could degenerate into open conflict.

But Aaron David Miller, a former negotiator in both Democratic and Republican administrations, does not see the recent attacks as "sufficient for a casus belli."

"If, in the wake of this incident, the Trump administration chose to strike Iranian vessels directly, or the Iranian mainland, or Iranian forces in Iraq and Syria, or in Yemen, you have zero support," said Miller, now a Middle East expert at the Wilson Center think tank.

- A 'focus on diplomacy' -

Trump, for his part, has made it abundantly clear: He does not want to embroil the country's military in another costly and "endless" war like those in Afghanistan and Iraq.

If acting US defense secretary Patrick Shanahan has expressed a determination to "defend our forces and our interests around the world," he has also reiterated that Washington "does not seek conflict."

Pentagon spokesmen have stressed that neither American interests nor personnel have yet been attacked -- making it an issue affecting global maritime traffic that should be settled at the international level.

"We have an international situation there in the Middle East, it's not a US situation," Shanahan told reporters on Friday, saying the administration was united in seeking an "international consensus to this international problem."

But it is no secret that the president's national security advisor, John Bolton, has taken far more aggressive positions. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is also considered a hawk on Iran, even if he has attempted to hew to Trump's more restrained line.

- What does Trump want? -

Beyond the question of how to respond to the recent attacks, a much larger question remains: What exactly is the concrete objective of the American pressure strategy against Iran?

Last year Trump pulled the US out of the multinational 2015 accord that was designed to prevent Tehran from producing nuclear weapons.

He was harshly critical of the pact, negotiated during the Obama presidency, and said he wanted to compel the Islamic Republic to accept much more stringent restrictions on its nuclear program and to cease any "destabilizing" behavior in the Middle East.

In recent weeks, even as his teams were cranking up the economic, diplomatic and military pressure on Iran, the president has issued repeated calls for direct dialogue with Iranian leaders.

But with supreme Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei flatly refusing to talk, Trump seems uncertain how to proceed.

"I personally feel that it is too soon to even think about making a deal," the president said Thursday on Twitter, before again on Friday repeating his invitation:

"We want to get them back to the table if they want to go back," he said on the "Fox & Friends" program. "I'm ready when they are. Whenever they're ready, I'm OK."

"The real problem is that there is no endgame in the administration's strategy," said Miller. "Regime collapse or change is fantastical right now."

Miller sees a disturbing lack of clarity in the administration's approach.

"What's the purpose of the sanctions?" the former diplomat asked. "Is it to destroy the Iranian economy? Or is it a serious effort to drag the Iranians into the negotiations and produce a better outcome than what Obama got?"

"I don't believe that this administration is prepared to (make) the kind of concessions that the Iranians would demand in a serious negotiation."


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OIL AND GAS
Norway forces sovereign wealth fund to go greener
Oslo (AFP) June 12, 2019
Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest at more than $1 trillion, is set to become greener by withdrawing further from fossil fuels, the Norwegian parliament decided on Wednesday. To comply with the new directive, the fund looks set to divest assets in mining giants working with coal, such as Glencore, BHP Billiton and Anglo American, and energy companies such as Germany's RWE and Italy's Enel. The proposal was originally put forward by the the country's right-wing government in Apr ... read more

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