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Oil prices sharply lower on OPEC production
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Nov 11, 2016


OPEC balancing act comes against production gains
Vienna (UPI) Nov 11, 2016 - Balance between supply and demand in the oil market will re-emerge with output adjustments, OPEC said, even as production grows in some key regions.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly market report for November that lower oil prices offered a financial incentive to keep oil in storage. Data from the United States this week show crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 4, showing markets still favor the supply side.

"Global oil inventories have grown rapidly since oil prices began to fall in the middle of 2014," OPEC economists said in their monthly report.

A higher level of crude oil production from OPEC and non-member states, including Russia and the United States, helped drag oil prices from above $100 per barrel in 2014 to below $30 per barrel in early 2016.

OPEC members in September tabled a proposal to hold production from its 14 members to 33 million barrels per day at the high end "in order to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring the rebalancing forward." In its monthly market report, the group said adjustments from both OPEC and non-OPEC members would help bring markets back into balance.

Data from OPEC show total U.S. oil production is on pace to decline to 13.6 million barrels per day, a figure revised upward from the previous month's report. With crude oil prices recovering, however, OPEC said there was a double-digit increase in the number of rigs in service in the United States, which could bring production levels up eventually.

OPEC reports total production from its members in October was 33.6 million bpd, about a half percent higher than the previous month and nearly 2 percent above the ceiling proposed in September. World oil demand growth for 2016, meanwhile, was adjusted slightly lower to 1.23 million bpd and the prediction for 2017 was steady at around 1.15 million bpd.

Outside of OPEC, Russian oil production remains higher. In the United States, President-elect Donald Trump has said he'd enact policies that favored more domestic crude oil production.

From its perspective, OPEC said there were "numerous uncertainties" for growth prospects in the global economy for the rest of this year and into 2017.

A reported increase in production from OPEC and an assessment of a standstill global economy sent crude oil prices sharply lower in early Friday trading.

Markets have been volatile in the days since Donald Trump passed the Electoral College threshold to clear his path to the White House early Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been in rally mode, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has moved toward steep declines.

Volatility reflects the sentiments of investors trying to guess what a politically untested Trump will do in office. The Trump win overshadowed energy market dynamics early this week, though attention has shifted back toward more fundamental economic factors.

Supply-side pressures pushed oil prices below $30 per barrel early this year before summer trends left oil inventory levels lower. Lower crude oil prices suppressed exploration and production activity, but some recovery has emerged in the latter half of the year.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reported that its 14 members produced a combined average of 33.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 240,000 bpd from the previous month. That's above what OPEC has considered for a production ceiling designed to bring the market back to balance.

The price for Brent crude oil dropped 2 percent at the start of trading in New York to $44.0 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was down 2.3 percent to open the day at $43.62 per barrel.

OPEC economists said the growth prospects for the global economy were unchanged for 2016 and 2017. The monthly market report noted crude oil futures increased as traders reacted to a production ceiling offered by OPEC members in Algeria.

"Nevertheless, prices came under pressure from a double-digit rise in the U.S. oil rig count and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar," the report read.

Brent crude oil prices are down about 7 percent from when OPEC offered a production proposal in September.

October production from OPEC was about a half percent higher than the previous month and nearly 2 percent above the ceiling proposed in September. World oil demand growth for 2016, meanwhile, was adjusted slightly lower to 1.23 million bpd and the prediction for 2017 was steady at around 1.15 million bpd.

Without action on production, OPEC said to expect a market that still favors the supply side next year.


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