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OIL AND GAS
Oil prices choppy on steady consumer price index
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Aug 16, 2016


Oil price rally continues
New York (UPI) Aug 15, 2016 - Crude oil prices continued their rally Monday on speculation of OPEC policy action next month, though underlying forces could dampen the movement.

Oil prices last week surged more than 4 percent after the International Energy Agency suggested the gap between supply and demand could narrow during the second half of the year. Saudi Arabia's oil minister last week suggested there may be some coordinated action taken among major producers, including those in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, during an extraordinary meeting next month in Algeria.

The price for crude oil was influenced by the publication of the full remarks from the minister by the official Saudi news agency.

"There is an opportunity for OPEC and major exporting non-OPEC ministers to meet and discuss the market situation, including any possible action that may be required to stabilize the market," Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih said.

Crude oil prices started the trading day in New York in positive territory. The price for Brent crude oil was up 1.2 percent to open at $47.54 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was up 1.1 percent to $45.12 per barrel.

Russia was among the major producers on board with production proposals earlier this year. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he was in support of renewed considerations, but said any artificial stimulus should be temporary. Market balance, he said, probably won't emerge until next year.

Weak global economic growth and an oversaturated market helped keep a lid on crude oil price increases, though with some recovery underway, several producers have expressed optimism about forward momentum.

Bill Barrett Corp., a company developing shale reserves in Colorado, said Monday it was expecting a robust spending program for the latter half of the year given that underlying economics and operational efficiency have improved.

"While the increased activity will not impact our 2016 production, it builds increasing operational momentum as we move in to 2017," President and CEO Scot Woodall said in a statement.

Saudi's oil minister suggested a robust production policy was needed to offset declines in other parts of the world. A report last week from the U.S. Energy Information Administration said operations in U.S. shale oil basins have proven more resilient to lower oil prices than many analysts had predicted.

A long run in the positive direction for oil prices was interrupted early Tuesday after U.S. data show little to no movement in the world's biggest economy.

Year-on-year, the U.S. Labor Department reported a 0.8 percent increase in the consumer price index. In July, the consumer price index was unchanged on a seasonal basis. Energy costs declined in July and food was unchanged.

"The index for all items less food and energy rose, but posted its smallest increase since March," the Labor Department noted in its report. "As a result, the all items index was unchanged after rising in each of the four previous months."

For consumers, their hourly wages reversed course to show momentum in July, but wage gains paled in comparison to the increase in rents and medical-care costs.

After rising nearly 10 percent in a week on the back of strong U.S. data from the labor sector and renewed rumors about supply-side action from major producers, crude oil prices moved in volatile territory in the early rounds of Tuesday trading.

Oil was up strongly hours before the start of trading in New York, moved sharply lower after the release of consumer price data, but bounced back slightly by the start of trading. The price for Brent crude oil was up 0.3 percent to start the day at $48.48 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was up 0.5 percent to open at $45.95 per barrel.

Major media outlets continued to reference possible efforts to stimulate oil prices on the sidelines of a meeting next month in Algeria. From Nigeria, where oil production is curbed by militant activity, Oil Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu was quoted by Bloomberg News as saying the odds of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cutting output were "sparse." A spokesperson from Iran, which in part helped scupper a similar proposal early this year, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying no decision was made on attending the meeting in Algeria.

A separate report from the Journal references "hopes" for a production freeze.

Crude oil prices may be influenced later by inventory and production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A survey emailed from S&P Global Platts said data may show a decline in crude oil stockpiles, a loose metric for demand, but short of the four-year average.

"The drop in seasonal crude oil demand usually ushers in a period of builds in crude inventories during the autumn," S&P Global Platts Oil Futures Editor Geoffrey Craig said in the research note. "But the shift from draws to builds has already appeared ahead of schedule this summer."


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