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Norway to examine scenarios for post-oil economy

Norway to examine scenarios for post-oil economy

by AFP Staff Writers
Oslo (AFP) Dec 3, 2025

Norway said Wednesday it will set up a commission to study potential scenarios for the country's post-oil economy, a commitment the Greens Party secured in exchange for backing the government's 2026 budget bill.

Norway, the largest producer of oil and natural gas in Europe excluding Russia, owes much of its prosperity to its reserves of oil and gas, which are responsible for climate change.

Those reserves are however starting to decline.

In hard-fought negotiations overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, the minority Labour government agreed with the Greens to create a commission tasked with reflecting on what shape Norway's post-oil economy could take.

"We are now beginning to write the final chapter in Norway's oil history, and paving the way for all the new adventures that will make Norway progress," Greens' party official Ingrid Liland said in a statement.

The deal is however far from the Greens' goal in its political programme, which calls for the country to adopt a plan to phase out hydrocarbons by 2040.

The "transition commission" will "examine various scenarios and measures aimed at improving the adaptability of the Norwegian economy, particularly how the workforce and natural resources can be used more effectively, as the Norwegian continental shelf enters a new phase marked by a decline in oil and gas production," according to the text agreed upon by the left-wing political partners.

The composition of the commission is not clear yet.

The Labour government's allies also secured another victory in the late-night negotiations: an extension of the phase-out of a VAT exemption on the purchase of electric cars.

In its 2026 budget proposal, the Labour government proposed to lower next year the threshold above which the purchase price of a new electric vehicle would be subject to value-added tax (VAT), from 500,000 kroner ($50,000) to 300,000 kroner.

The VAT exemption would have then been removed entirely in 2027.

VAT is 25 percent for cars in Norway.

But according to the agreement clinched early Wednesday, the removal of the VAT exemption will be pushed back until 2028, subject to approval from European authorities.

"It's very important for the growth of electric cars that VAT is introduced more gradually than what the government initially proposed," Christina Bu, secretary general of the Norwegian EV Association, said in a statement.

"This will make it possible to reduce emissions further," she said.

Norway has the highest rate of electric car adoption in the world, representing nearly 100 percent of all new car registrations.

Norway postpones deep-sea mining activities for four years
Oslo (AFP) Dec 3, 2025 - Norway on Wednesday postponed the first licences to permit deep-sea mining in its Arctic waters for four years, a delay environmentalists hope signals the "nail in the coffin" of the plans.

The country was the first in Europe aiming to commence the practice in its waters, but following thorny negotiations, Norway's minority Labour government clinched a deal with small political allies that secures a majority for its 2026 budget in exchange for the postponement.

The government agreed "not to launch the first tenders for deep-sea mining during the current legislative term", which ends in 2029, according to a deal that received the support of two key parties in the early hours of Wednesday.

"This must be the nail in the coffin for the deep sea mining industry in Norway," said Greenpeace deep sea mining campaigner Haldis Tjeldflaat Helle.

"Any government that is committed to sustainable ocean management cannot support deep-sea mining," she said in a statement.

Deep-sea mining is an emerging industry that aims to plumb previously untouched seabeds for commodities including nickel, cobalt and copper, which are used in everything from rechargeable batteries to military technology.

Groups like the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Greenpeace oppose the practice, saying it poses a threat to pristine ecosystems on the sea floor, while the European Parliament has called for an international moratorium.

The Norwegian government has meanwhile insisted on the need to end the world's dependence on countries like China for the minerals needed for the green transition.

According to an official 2023 assessment, Norway's seabed is believed to contain 38 million tonnes of copper and 45 million tonnes of zinc, as well as "significant" rare earth elements.

- 'Very detrimental' decision -

Norway's parliament gave the green light in 2024 for the start of deep-sea mining activities in its territorial waters.

The government had planned to start issuing exploration licences in 2025, arguing that prospecting was necessary to gain much-needed knowledge of the seabed.

But small parties that provide the government key backing in parliament to pass legislation opposed the move.

To pass the 2026 budget, which parliament is due to vote on this Friday, the Labour government once again bowed to the demands of its allies in parliament to suspend deep-sea mining activities.

Early on Wednesday, the two remaining holdout parties said they would support the budget project, which is conditioned on the deep-sea mining delay provision.

The WWF hailed the move as "a massive win for nature".

"This decision represents a significant shift in Norway's position and is a historic victory for nature, science, and public pressure," it said.

Industrial actors that had been chomping at the bit to start exploration meanwhile regretted what they said was a "very detrimental" decision.

"Actors counting on deep-sea minerals may be forced to turn to international projects while waiting for more predictable political conditions" in Norway, Egil Tjaland, secretary general of the Norwegian Forum for Marine Minerals, told AFP.

The head of the start-up Adepth Minerals, Anette Broch Mathisen Tvedt, said it was "concerning that small parties dictate Norway's future and jeopardise strategically important industries".

Other deep-sea mining projects exist elsewhere in the world.

The Cook Islands, in cooperation with China, awarded exploration licences to three companies in 2022.

And The Metals Company in Canada wants to exploit international waters in the Pacific Ocean without the approval of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), relying on a US law reinstated by President Donald Trump.

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