Mapping the World's Off-Limits Oil to Meet Paris Agreement Goals

Mapping the World's Off-Limits Oil to Meet Paris Agreement Goals
by Hugo Ritmico
Barcelona, Spain (SPX) Mar 19, 2024
To combat climate change and adhere to the Paris Agreement's aim of capping global warming at 1.5C, a substantial portion of the planet's coal, oil, and conventional gas reserves must remain untapped. This is the central finding of a study led by the University of Barcelona, recently published in Nature Communications, which introduces an atlas pinpointing the oil reserves that should not be exploited due to environmental and social considerations.

The study, spearheaded by Professor Marti Orta-Martinez from the University of Barcelona's Faculty of Biology and the UB Biodiversity Research Institute, in collaboration with colleagues from the Erasmus University Rotterdam and the University of San Francisco de Quito, identifies key areas where oil extraction could have dire socio-environmental impacts. These include protected natural spaces, biodiversity hotspots, regions with a high concentration of endemic species, urban territories, and lands belonging to isolated indigenous communities.

Despite these restrictions, the research warns that forgoing oil extraction in these sensitive areas alone will not suffice to prevent global warming from surpassing the 1.5C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement, an international climate treaty ratified by 196 nations in December 2015, mandates efforts to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels, with a preferred limit of 1.5C. The unburnable oil atlas offered by the research team presents a novel strategy to augment existing climate policies, which largely focus on reducing fossil fuel demand, by incorporating socio-environmental considerations into decisions about where oil extraction can occur.

"Our findings indicate the specific oil deposits that must remain undeveloped to fulfill the Paris Agreement objectives, especially those overlapping with ecologically sensitive areas," stated Professor Orta-Martinez. The study emphasizes the critical nature of limiting global warming to 1.5C to avoid triggering irreversible climate events, such as permafrost thaw and significant ice loss in polar regions, which could drastically amplify climate change impacts.

The remaining carbon budget to stay within the 1.5C warming limit is dwindling, currently estimated at 250 gigatonnes of CO2, according to Lorenzo Pellegrini, a researcher involved in the study. With human-induced emissions continuing at about 42 GtCO2 annually, this budget is projected to be exhausted by 2028.

Burning all known fossil fuel reserves would emit around 10,000 GtCO2, far exceeding the carbon budget for a 1.5C scenario. The study advocates for an immediate end to new fossil fuel exploration, licensing for new extractions, and the early closure of many existing projects to achieve the 1.5C goal.

The researchers, supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the European Union's Next Generation funds, urge governments, businesses, and investors to cease investments in the fossil fuel sector that do not adhere to strict socio-environmental criteria. They call for a significant shift towards renewable energy sources and adherence to a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty to meet global energy demands sustainably.

Research Report:Mapping Essential No-Go Zones for Oil Extraction to Protect the Climate