Travel club AAA is expecting a busy week in travel for Independence Day, with slightly more than 50 million people forecast to travel more than 50 miles. That would set a record should the forecast prove accurate.
But even with the expected surge in demand, retail prices are moderating somewhat, working in favor of those looking for a long road trip this holiday. AAA put the national average retail price at $3.54 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, about 3 cents per gallon lower than week-ago levels and $1.27 less than this time last year.
Federal data does show that gasoline demand is holding up, but it remains still a bit below pre-pandemic levels. Air travel, however, could be a headache if recent woes attributed to United Airlines spillover to other carriers and hubs.
United Airlines last week canceled more than 3,000 flights as severe weather impacted arrivals at key airports in the New York area, leaving thousands of passengers without flights.
That said, apart from construction issues at airports such as Atlanta, Delta airlines in its advisory reports show no major issues in terms of travel delays.
That could all change, however, once those who already left for their holidays return to work later in the week.
"The share of air travelers in the overall holiday forecast this year is an impressive 8.2% -- the highest percentage in nearly 20 years," it said.
The number of people passing through airport security on Sunday was nearly 20% higher than year-ago levels. FlightAware, meanwhile, is showing 87 cancellations within, into or out of the United States on Monday. That's nearly 1,000 less than at the worst of the issues from last week.
Gas prices working in holiday-goers favor for July 4
Washington DC (UPI) Jun 30, 2023 -Even with forecasts for busier-than-expected July 4 holiday travel, retail gasoline prices are in a bit of a holding pattern, data for Friday show.
Travel club AAA put the national average retail price at $3.54 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, down from the $3.58 average at this point last month.
"Gas prices are $1.30 per gallon less this year than last, but they are still high compared to historical averages," said Andrew Gross, a spokesperson for AAA.
Retail gasoline prices have largely followed trends in the broader commodities market. The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, has been range-bound since late April, trading in the mid- to upper-$70 per barrel range. Brent was trading at around $75 barrel as of 10 a.m. EDT.
When adjusted for year-on-year inflation, retail gasoline prices are actually a bit closer to $4 per gallon, though an increase in wages and disposable income means many consumers are unfazed.
AAA said it expects slightly more than 50 million people in the United States to travel more than 50 miles during the upcoming holiday, which falls on a Tuesday this year. That would set a record should the forecast prove accurate.
Much of that, however, could be in the form of air travel, where AAA expects to see an 11.2% increase from year-ago levels. Should AAA's forecast prove accurate, air travel would be 6.6% higher than 2019 levels, prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The share of air travelers in the overall holiday forecast this year is an impressive 8.2% -- the highest percentage in nearly 20 years," it said.
Airports could be congested and prone to cancellations given a shortage of workers in air-traffic control.
For the upcoming holiday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting temperatures will be slightly higher than normal from the northern Rockies to the Northeast. It may be hot in the Great Lakes region and in the south, where high levels of humidity could make for a stifling holiday.
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