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Crude oil riding the Yellen train
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Sep 22, 2016


Oil prices move lower after flirt with chatter-sparked rally
New York (UPI) Sep 23, 2016 - Fluid confidence on whether or not oil-producing nations can reach a market agreement next week in Algeria left crude oil prices mixed to lower early Friday.

Chatter in the oil market press has been a driving force in price movements as anticipation builds ahead of a meeting between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-member states on the sidelines of an international energy conference.

The first mention of a possible agreement surfaced earlier in the summer and helped push crude oil prices briefly above $50 per barrel. On the latest rumors, an OPEC official speaking on condition of anonymity was quoted Friday by The Wall Street Journal as saying the production group needs to keep the rumor mill spinning "to make sure prices don't fall to a certain level or rise to a certain level they don't like."

Strong positive movement in crude oil prices Thursday mirrored global stocks carrying forward with the momentum sparked the previous day by a decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, though the possibility for a rate hike yet this year is in the cards.

Crude oil prices started trading in Asia lower and moved into mixed territory at the start of trading Friday in New York. The price for Brent crude oil was up by a fraction of a percent to open at $47.71 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, dropped 0.3 percent below the previous session to start the day at $46.17 per barrel.

The Algeria chatter was fueled again by Russian officials offering competing narratives. Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich told state television Friday there's "a chance" for a production agreement next week. Even if an agreement is reached, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told CNBC it wouldn't have the desired impact because higher prices would support a recovery in U.S. oil production "and then the prices will fall again."

Even if there's an agreement in place, production is already on the rise with OPEC members Libya and Nigeria seeing production levels increase, which could leave a widened gap between supply and demand in place.

On the market side, European economic troubles persist with the French economy showing signs of contraction. A flash estimate of the Purchasing Managers' Index, meanwhile, shows business activity in the European Union is close to a two-year low.

Crude oil prices moved higher in early Thursday trading after strong labor data from the United States lent support to a possible rate hike later this year.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said economic growth in the United States was subdued during the first half of the year, but gains in household spending stimulated growth since then.

"Business investment, however, remains soft, both in the energy sector and more broadly," she said in opening remarks Wednesday afternoon. "The energy industry has been hard hit by the drop in oil prices since mid-2014, and investment in that sector continued to contract through the first half of the year. However, drilling is now showing signs of stabilizing."

Nevertheless, with steady gains in exploration and production activity offering an indication that the market may have hit bottom, Yellen said that, while rates would be left alone, the economy is expected to expand. Economic data over the past few weeks show pressures on the U.S. economy remain, though recent trends in employment add support to the possibility of a rate increase later this year.

The U.S. Labor Department reported first-time claims for unemployment declined by 8,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 252,000, the lowest level since July. The less-volatile four-week average declined 2,250 to 258,500.

Crude oil prices extended a rally sparked by Yellen's comments into early Thursday trading. The price for Brent crude oil moved higher by 1.9 percent to start the day at $47.73 per barrel. The U.S. benchmark price, West Texas Intermediate, gained 2.4 percent to open the day in New York at $46.41 per barrel.

The price movement is in contrast to trends in production. Russia's deputy energy minister sparked a news media frenzy early Thursday when he said a cut in output was technically possible, though Energy Minister Alexander Novak corrected him later to say there were no proposals to curb production.

In a statement on strategy, French energy company Total said its production was on pace for an average increase of 5 percent through 2019, with more than a dozen new start-ups on the schedule. Libya and Nigeria, two members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are both on the cusp of recovery.

Ministers from OPEC and non-member states could review proposals to keep production rates steady at meetings next week in Algeria. In no uncertain terms, Olivier Jakob, the managing director at Swiss oil-market research group Petromatrix, said in an emailed statement that he was calling the bluff of both the U.S. Federal Reserve and OPEC ministers.

"The U.S. Fed is all about talk and no action and the crude oil market can now speculate for the next two days if the same will characterize the upcoming meeting of OPEC members in Algeria," he said.


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