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China eyes new oil benchmark with futures launch
By Albee ZHANG
Shanghai (AFP) March 26, 2018

Shanghai exchange makes oil futures contract debut
Washington (UPI) Mar 26, 2018 - The global market was put on notice Monday with the start of oil futures trading on the Shanghai index, though confidence will take some time, analysts said.

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange started inaugural trades for crude oil futures contracts settled in renminbi, a first for the Asian market. The dozen or so contracts listed on the first trading day were set at around $65 per barrel, about on par with West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, but discounted to Brent, the global benchmark, by about $4.80 per barrel early Monday.

"China is the world's largest importer of crude oil, and the introduction of renminbi -denominated crude oil futures contracts represents a milestone for China's futures market," said David Martin, Asia-Pacific head of global clearing at J.P. Morgan, was quoted by China's official Xinhua News Agency as saying.

Chinese currencies have elite status from the International Monetary Fund, with the renminbi taking a position alongside the U.S. dollar, the euro, the British pound and the yen. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has said the inclusion of the renminbi reflects progress in Chinese financial reforms and "the ongoing evolution of the global economy."

China is the world's second-largest economy, behind the United States. It passed the United States to become the largest crude oil importer in the world last year.

"We expect China's crude import requirements to grow by about 2.1 million barrels per day from 2017 to 2023, much larger than any other country's incremental requirements," Wood Mackenzie's research director Sushant Gupta told UPI. "Rightly so, China would want to play a more active role in influencing the price of crude oil."

Giovanni Stauvano, a commodity analyst at UBS, told UPI that given China's presence on the economic and energy stages, it's no surprise it aims to internationalize its currencies.

"China's new contract saw strong maiden trade, with bids from domestic retail to foreign institutional buyers," he added.

The launch of the futures contract comes amid simmering trade tensions between China and the United States. And, with the United States exporting more of its crude oil, WTI has gained a competitive edge in the Asian market because of its discount to Brent.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Russia, however, is the largest oil supplier to the Chinese market.

Wood Mackenzie's Gupta added that crude oil suppliers from the Middle East and United States will need to stay competitive now with the Chinese entry, but it's far too early to have a direct market impact.

"It may take years for market participants to build confidence in China's benchmark," he said.

China launched yuan-denominated oil futures contracts on Monday, marking the first time foreign investors will have access to Chinese commodity futures as the world's top crude importer seeks greater influence over global prices.

But analysts said the long-delayed Shanghai-traded futures are unlikely to challenge the primacy of New York and London-based futures any time soon due to Chinese capital controls and the entrenched position of the dollar-denominated contracts.

Futures contracts allow investors to hedge exposure to physical prices, and offering them in yuan could allow energy-hungry China -- which last year surpassed the United States as the world's largest crude importer -- to exercise more control over prices of the type of oil it consumes most.

It also is the latest in a series of steps by China to raise the world profile of the yuan.

The new contracts are "rooted in China's ambition to increase its bargaining power to price energy supplies amidst an increasing reliance on oil imports," energy industry information provider ICIS said in a research note.

"If the demand for (yuan contracts) came at the expense of the US dollar, there is always a chance, however slim, that the Chinese yuan could displace the US dollar as the main petro-currency."

But analysts said Chinese capital controls will likely discourage hefty foreign engagement, as will wariness of the often wild gyrations in China's still relatively immature financial markets.

- Impact unclear -

"For now there is more curiosity than actual interest in participating in the contract," Michal Meidan, a London-based analyst with Energy Aspects, told AFP.

"Over time... it could become at least a domestic Chinese benchmark. But for it to become a global benchmark -- we are a way away from that."

The current global standards are London-trade Brent futures, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is traded in New York.

They mainly trade higher-quality light sweet crude oil, while the yuan contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange involve mainly medium-sour crude.

The Shanghai contract traded higher than its London and New York counterparts shortly after debuting, at 432.2 yuan ($68.43) per barrel for September settlement at around 0145 GMT, according to Bloomberg News.

Bloomberg said September contracts for Brent traded near $68.72 a barrel, and WTI at $64.37.

China has already taken steps that it hopes will help to internationalise its currency.

Last July it widened foreign access to its $10 trillion bond market -- the world's third-largest after the United States and Japan -- and in recent years has allowed link-ups between the stock exchanges of Hong Kong and mainland China that allow foreign and Chinese investors to buy shares listed on each other's markets.

But foreign investor response to those openings has been tepid, and while analysts say the yuan oil futures will help further internationalise China's markets and increase crude price transparency in Asia, the dollar's position as the world's petro-currency remains solid.

The existing benchmarks are "highly liquid, (have) been trading for decades, denominated in US dollars and include a large portion of physical deliveries," said Jonty Rushforth, head of oil pricing at S&P Global Platts.

"With this in mind, it is likely to take some time before any effects become clear. It is also worth remembering that, as the world's largest importer of crude, China already has a strong voice in global oil markets," Rushforth said.

burs-azk/dma/kaf


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