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Brazil votes in nail-biter polls closely watched by Trump

By Facundo Fernandez BARRIO with Lucia LACURCIA in Rio de Janeiro Brasília, Oct 4, 2026 (AFP) AFP

Brazilians started voting Sunday in a knife-edge race between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, in an election to decide whether Latin America's biggest nation follows a regional swing to the right championed by US President Donald Trump.

From villages deep in the Amazon rainforest to the agricultural heartlands in the south and sprawling urban favelas, Brazilians are facing a familiar cast -- with many forced to pick who they least dislike.

At almost 81 years old, the veteran leftist Lula is seeking a fourth and final term in office, warning voters that Brazil's sovereignty is at stake due to pressure from Trump.

"The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic regime and barbarism," Lula said after voting in the state of Sao Paulo.

He is facing a tough battle with right-wing senator Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his failed 2022 re-election bid.

Flavio Bolsonaro has centered his campaign on a message of change, while vowing to crack down on crime, a major concern among voters.

"Brazil cannot bear any more suffering, such high taxes, so many women killed. I want to free the Brazilian people," he said after voting in Rio de Janeiro.

Opinion polls show neither candidate is likely to score more than the 50 percent -- the threshold required to win in the first round on Sunday and are neck-and-neck in an October 25 runoff.

Both candidates have extremely high rejection rates in the deeply polarized nation.

"We're basically in a situation where we're voting for the lesser of two evils," said Janaina Oliveira, 45, a financial administrator in Rio de Janeiro, who picked Bolsonaro.

Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old caregiver, told AFP she had planned to vote for Lula as she always has, but "when I got there, I switched to Bolsonaro. Just to see what happens, to see if anything changes."

Brazil uses electronic voting machines, and results are expected within a few hours after polls close at 5pm (2000 GMT).

- Trump in the background -

Trump loomed large over a bitter election campaign that featured more scandals and mud-slinging than policy and promises.

Flavio Bolsonaro's rallies featured massive US flags and images of Trump, who has said he is "very closely" watching the election, but did not endorse the candidate.

The US president has wielded tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasilia over complaints ranging from the trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro to alleged unfair trade practices.

Lula has repeatedly warned him not to "meddle" in the elections.

Maria de Nazare Azevedo, a 57-year-old civil servant, told AFP she was very worried about her country's independence.

"I don't want to be anyone's colony. I'm a Lula supporter and I always have been," she said.

Among the scandals, it emerged that Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption over the financing of the biopic "Dark Horse" about his father.

Buoyed by his father's legacy, Bolsonaro leads in the south, among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians.

- 'More enemies' -

Lula has an advantage in Brazil's poor northeast, among low-income voters, Catholics, and women.

Revered for social welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty, Lula made a dramatic comeback to office in the 2022 elections after a massive corruption scandal that saw him jailed for over 18 months.

The charges were thrown out on procedural grounds.

He beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 by only 1.8 percentage points.

Riots in Brasilia and the botched coup attempt after his election allowed him to cast himself as guardian of Brazil's democracy, even as Jair Bolsonaro's trial and conviction only deepened divisions.

In his third term he has overseen a drop in inflation and unemployment, but voters complain about a high cost of living.

Lula has also sharply curbed deforestation in the Amazon, but the environment has barely registered as a campaign issue.

Indigenous chief Bepdjo Mekragnotire, 45, of the Bau village in the Amazon, told AFP ahead of the vote: "We stand with Lula, all of us."

"Our concern is that if Flavio wins, there will be more enemies -- more illegal mining, more logging," he said.

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