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Gulf should adjust to new oil price 'reality': IMF
By Ali Khalil
Dubai (AFP) Oct 21, 2015


IMF: Oil, conflict create Middle East woes
Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UPI) Oct 21, 2015 - Fiscal deficits are mounting for countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia because of lingering conflict and low oil prices, the IMF said.

The International Monetary Fund said the region as a whole should witness stagnant economic growth of around 2.5 percent for 2015. Conflict, the IMF said, is taking a "horrendous" toll on the region and a weak crude oil market is making matters worse.

"For the region's oil exporters, the fall in prices has led to large export revenue losses, amounting to a staggering $360 billion this year alone," Masood Ahmed, the IMF's regional director, said from Dubai.

Crude oil prices spiked briefly in late September when Russia entered the simmering conflict in Syria on the side of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. According to the IMF, the conflict alone has nonetheless led Syria's gross domestic product to contract by around 50 percent since fighting first erupted in 2012.

For a country like Yemen, where operators have been forced to halt work because of fighting, GDP is down about 30 percent for the year, the IMF reports.

As a whole, the IMF finds many regional governments are drawing on extra reserves or pulling back on spending, though fiscal deficits are still expected to run at about 13 percent of GDP for countries that rely heavily on oil export revenue.

One bright spot, the IMF said, may be Iran, where sanctions relief is expected to lead to growth of around 4 percent for the member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"With the easing of international sanctions, the country's economic prospects have improved substantially and, through increased trade and investment, benefits are expected to flow to its economic partners as well," Ahmed said.

World Bank outlook pushes oil lower
New York (UPI) Oct 21, 2015 - A downbeat oil market assessment from the World Bank and lingering signs of an oversupplied market pushed crude oil prices down sharply in Wednesday trading.

In a late Tuesday report, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude oil inventories rose by a little more than 7 million barrels last week. The week prior, API said U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 9.3 million barrels.

Data suggest slight improvements in the U.S. and global economies aren't enough to draw on the surplus of oil in storage. In response, crude oil prices retreated sharply in early Wednesday trading.

The price for Brent crude oil dropped 1 percent from the previous close to $48.21 per barrel, down about 2.7 percent for the month. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for crude oil, was down 1.9 percent from Tuesday to $45.42 per barrel, off 2.4 percent from Oct. 1.

In a Tuesday report, the World Bank said it was lowering its full-year forecast for crude oil prices by $5 per barrel to $52 per barrel.

"We see a five-year-long slide in most commodity prices continuing in the third quarter of 2015," John Baffes, senior commodities research for the bank, said in a statement. "There are sufficient inventories of oil and other commodities and demand is weak, especially for industrial commodities, which is why prices may stay persistently low."

Technical experts from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are meeting in Vienna to discuss current market dynamics. A November decision by member states to keep production static added further downward pressure to crude oil prices. Despite the looming return of Iran, no major production announcements are expected from the meeting.

Gulf economies need to adjust to the "new reality" of oil prices expected to remain low for some time, the International Monetary Fund says, recommending spending cuts and income diversification.

But the oil-rich monarchies remain in a strong position to make the necessary adjustments thanks to the large financial reserves they have built up during years of firmer prices, according to the IMF's regional outlook published Wednesday.

"Not only this year, but for the years to come, these countries will need to make an adjustment to better balance their spending to the new reality of the oil prices," said IMF Middle East and Central Asia chief Masood Ahmed.

The budgets of Gulf Cooperation Council members Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are facing an average deficit this year of 13 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), Ahmed told AFP in an interview.

Their combined budget deficit over the next five years will exceed $1 trillion, he said, as oil prices have plunged to about $50 a barrel from about $115 in June 2014, pressured by oversupply and weak demand.

The IMF report says oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa -- which besides GCC countries include Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria and Yemen -- will lose around $360 billion in oil revenues this year.

Oil prices will average $51.6 a barrel this year and $50.4 a barrel in 2016, before rising to $63 a barrel in 2020, the IMF predicted.

"Most people today believe that oil prices may come up a little bit from where they are today... By 2020, we are expecting to see oil prices in the low and mid 60s rather than the numbers they were used to," said Ahmed.

"That means that most of these countries will need to undertake a process of sizeable and sustained adjustment on the fiscal side."

Those adjustments should include finding ways to cut public spending and diversify income away from oil, said Ahmed, pointing mainly at the need to cut subsidies and reduce the public sector wage bill.

"Most nationals of the GCC countries work in the public sector, and that's a model that has to change over the next few years," he said.

The IMF expects economic growth in the GCC to slow to 3.25 percent this year and to 2.75 percent in 2016, from 3.5 percent in 2014.

Ahmed applauded a recent move by the UAE to lift subsidies on fuel as a "good example" for other GCC countries.

Kuwait lifted subsidies on diesel and kerosene and other states are planning subsidy cuts.

Capital spending on projects should also be moderated with the focus on efficiency, he said.

- 'Difficult choices ahead' -

Ahmed said GCC countries, known for their low taxes, could look at taxing consumption to raise revenues outside the oil sector.

"There are difficult choices ahead. But it is important to set out for each country what they want to do in each of these areas and to lay out a medium-term plan," he said.

Most GCC countries are in a strong position to adjust to the new reality of the oil market, thanks to their hefty financial reserves.

"GCC countries have very wisely built up financial savings during the time when oil prices were high. That puts them in a very strong position today to face the shock of the magnitude of lower oil prices that we are seeing today," said Ahmed.

The IMF said that the fiscal reserves of Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain would run out in less than five years. For UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, they will last for more than 20 years.

These countries should use some of those financial buffers "to make the process of adjusting to the new oil price more gradual," said Ahmed.

China's economic slowdown and an expected US interest rate rise could inflict more pain on oil-exporting countries by crimping energy demand and raising borrowing costs, the IMF warned.


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